Blog Post

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 20th, 2021

Anita Groves • Jan 20, 2021

Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, continues quantitative easing.

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program, which continues at its current pace of at least $4 billion per week.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to take a severe human and economic toll in Canada and around the world. The earlier-than anticipated arrival of effective vaccines will save lives and livelihoods, and has reduced uncertainty from extreme levels. Nevertheless, uncertainty is still elevated, and the outlook remains highly conditional on the path of the virus and the timeline for the effective rollout of vaccines.

The economic recovery has been interrupted in many countries as new waves of COVID-19 infections force governments to re-impose containment measures. However, the arrival of effective vaccines combined with further fiscal and monetary policy support have boosted the medium-term outlook for growth. In its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank projects global growth to average just over 5 percent per year in 2021 and 2022, before slowing to just under 4 percent in 2023. Global financial markets and commodity prices have reacted positively to improving economic prospects. A broad-based decline in the US exchange rate combined with stronger commodity prices have led to a further appreciation of the Canadian dollar.

Canada’s economy had strong momentum through to late 2020, but the resurgence of cases and the reintroduction of lockdown measures are a serious setback. Growth in the first quarter of 2021 is now expected to be negative. Assuming restrictions are lifted later in the first quarter, the Bank expects a strong second-quarter rebound. Consumption is forecast to gain strength as parts of the economy reopen and confidence improves, and exports and business investment will be buoyed by rising foreign demand. Beyond the near term, the outlook for Canada is now stronger and more secure than in the October projection, thanks to earlier-than-expected availability of vaccines and significant ongoing policy stimulus. After a decline in real GDP of 5 ½ percent in 2020, the Bank projects the economy will grow by 4 percent in 2021, almost 5 percent in 2022, and around 2 ½ percent in 2023.

CPI inflation has risen to the low end of the Bank’s 1-3 percent target range in recent months, while measures of core inflation are still below 2 percent. CPI inflation is forecast to rise temporarily to around 2 percent in the first half of the year, as the base-year effects of price declines at the pandemic’s outset — mostly gasoline — dissipate. Excess supply is expected to weigh on inflation throughout the projection period. As it is absorbed, inflation is expected to return sustainably to the 2 percent target in 2023.

In view of the weakness of near-term growth and the protracted nature of the recovery, the Canadian economy will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our projection, this does not happen until into 2023. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank will continue its QE program until the recovery is well underway. As the Governing Council gains confidence in the strength of the recovery, the pace of net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted as required. We remain committed to providing the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 10, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on April 21, 2021.

As announced, starting with this decision the target for the overnight rate will take effect on the business day following each rate announcement.

Here is a copy of the latest monetary policy report for January, 2021.

This article was originally published on the Bank of Canada’s website on January 20th, 2021.

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Anita Groves

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Getting a Mortgage After Bankruptcy

By Anita Groves • 01 May, 2024

Sometimes life throws you a financial curveball. Bankruptcy and consumer proposals happen. It doesn’t mean your life is over, and it doesn’t mean you won’t ever qualify for a mortgage again. The key to financial success here is getting things under control as quickly as possible. You must demonstrate to the potential lenders that what happened in the past won’t happen again in the future. So if you’re thinking about getting a mortgage post-bankruptcy, lenders will want answers to the following questions: How long have you been discharged? Securing a mortgage will be dependent on how long it has been since you were discharged from your bankruptcy or consumer proposal. Most lenders consider the discharge date on both to be your new ground zero. And while there is no legally defined waiting period for when you can apply for a new mortgage post-bankruptcy, what lenders will assess is how you’re managing your finances after your financial troubles. Have you established new credit? You can show lenders that they can trust you after bankruptcy by establishing new credit and managing that credit flawlessly. So as soon as you’ve been discharged, it’s a good idea to get a secured credit card and start rebuilding your credit score. To be considered completely established, you’ll want to have two years of credit history on two trade lines with a credit limit of $2500 on each trade line. You’ll also want to make sure that you have no late or missed payments. How much do you have available for a downpayment? The more money you have to put towards purchasing a property, or the more equity you have in your property in the case of a refinance, the better your chances of getting a mortgage. The more money you bring to the table, the more comfortable a lender will feel about the risk they take of losing their investment should you run into future financial difficulty. What is your total debt service ratio? Another consideration lenders will look at is how much money you make compared to the cost of making your mortgage payments. So it probably goes without saying that the more money you make compared to the amount you want to borrow, the better. Conventional or insured financing. If you’re looking to get the best mortgage products available, here are some of the things a lender will want to see: You’ve been discharged for at least two years plus a day. You’ve established your credit (as listed above). You have at least 5% down for the first $500k of the purchase and 10% down for anything over $500k. If you don’t have a 20% downpayment, you will be required to secure mortgage insurance through CMHC, Sagen (formerly Genworth), or Canada Guaranty. The cost to service the property and all your debts don’t exceed 44% of your gross income. Alternative lending As independent mortgage professionals, our job is to provide solutions and strategies for our clients. As such, in addition to dealing with many traditional lending institutions, we also have access to lenders who specialize in working with clients whose financial situation isn't all that straightforward. These private lenders offer alternative lending solutions that consider the overall strength of your mortgage application. While you won’t qualify for the best rates and terms on the market by going with an alternative lender, if you’re looking for options, you might find that alternative lending is a very reasonable solution for you. Alternative lending isn’t for everyone, but it’s an excellent solution for some, especially if you’ve gone through a bankruptcy or consumer proposal and need a mortgage before fully establishing your credit. Get in touch anytime. So whether you’re looking for a plan to help you qualify for a mortgage with the most favourable terms or if you need something more immediate. Please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to outline your options and work on a plan to get you a mortgage.

Mortgage Options for Older Canadians

By Anita Groves • 24 Apr, 2024

Although it’s ideal to have your mortgage paid off by the time you retire, that isn’t always possible in today’s economy. The cost of living is considerably higher than it has ever been, and as a result, many Canadians are putting off retirement, hoping to make just a bit more money to add to that nest egg. So if you find yourself in the position where you’re considering your mortgage options into retirement, you’ve come to the right place. The advantage of working with an independent mortgage professional instead of a single bank is choice. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, you won’t be limited to an individual institution’s products; rather, you will have access to considerably more options. Here are some options available to older Canadians as they plan for mortgage financing through their retirement. Standard Mortgage Financing If you’ve got a steady income, decent credit, and equity in your home, there is no reason you shouldn’t qualify for standard mortgage financing, which usually comes at the lowest interest rates and best terms. Some lenders use pension and retirement income to support your mortgage application even if you’ve already retired. Reverse Mortgage Financing A reverse mortgage allows Canadian homeowners 55 years and older to borrow money from their homes with no proof of income, no credit check, and no health questions. A reverse mortgage is a fabulous mortgage solution that has helped thousands of older Canadians enhance their lifestyle. Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) A line of credit secured to the equity you have in your home is an excellent tool to allow you to access money when you need it but not pay interest if you don’t need it. Many older Canadians like the idea of rolling all their expenses and income into one account. Private Financing If you happen to be in a bit of a tight spot, you have a plan but need a financial solution; private financing might be the answer. Indeed not the first choice for many because of the higher interest rates. However, private financing can provide you with options where a traditional bank can’t. If you have any questions about securing mortgage financing for your retirement, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you and walk you through all your options.