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Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Sept 6th, 2023

Anita Groves • September 6, 2023

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

September 6, 2023

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Inflation in advanced economies has continued to come down, but with measures of core inflation still elevated, major central banks remain focused on restoring price stability. Global growth slowed in the second quarter of 2023, largely reflecting a significant deceleration in China. With ongoing weakness in the property sector undermining confidence, growth prospects in China have diminished. In the United States, growth was stronger than expected, led by robust consumer spending. In Europe, strength in the service sector supported growth, offsetting an ongoing contraction in manufacturing. Global bond yields have risen, reflecting higher real interest rates, and international oil prices are higher than was assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

The Canadian economy has entered a period of weaker growth, which is needed to relieve price pressures. Economic growth slowed sharply in the second quarter of 2023, with output contracting by 0.2% at an annualized rate. This reflected a marked weakening in consumption growth and a decline in housing activity, as well as the impact of wildfires in many regions of the country. Household credit growth slowed as the impact of higher rates restrained spending among a wider range of borrowers. Final domestic demand grew by 1% in the second quarter, supported by government spending and a boost to business investment. The tightness in the labour market has continued to ease gradually. However, wage growth has remained around 4% to 5%.

Recent CPI data indicate that inflationary pressures remain broad-based. After easing to 2.8% in June, CPI inflation moved up to 3.3% in July, averaging close to 3% in line with the Bank’s projection. With the recent increase in gasoline prices, CPI inflation is expected to be higher in the near term before easing again. Year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation are now both running at about 3.5%, indicating there has been little recent downward momentum in underlying inflation. The longer high inflation persists, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched, making it more difficult to restore price stability.

With recent evidence that excess demand in the economy is easing, and given the lagged effects of monetary policy, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate at 5% and continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. However, Governing Council remains concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures, and is prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behavior are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 25, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report at the same time.

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Anita Groves

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Fixed or Variable Mortgage? How Canada’s Economic Shifts Could Impact Your Decision

By Anita Groves • February 24, 2025

Navigating Mortgage Rates in an Uncertain Market With Canada’s economy facing trade tensions, inflation concerns, and a potential slowdown, mortgage rates are in flux. Borrowers must weigh the risks and rewards of fixed vs. variable rates to make the best decision for their financial future. What’s Driving Mortgage Rate Changes? Several key factors are shaping the mortgage landscape: Trade Uncertainty – New tariffs between the U.S. and Canada could push inflation higher, impacting bond yields and fixed mortgage rates. Inflation Pressures – If inflation stays above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, rate cuts may be delayed, keeping borrowing costs higher. Recession Concerns – If economic growth slows, the BoC could cut rates, making variable-rate mortgages more attractive. Fixed vs. Variable: Which One is Right for You? 🔒 Fixed-Rate Mortgages: ✅ Predictable payments for peace of mind ✅ Protection from future rate hikes ❌ Typically higher initial rates ❌ Costly penalties if you break your term early 📊 Variable-Rate Mortgages: ✅ Lower starting rates with potential for savings ✅ Easier to break or refinance if needed ❌ Payments can fluctuate with rate changes ❌ Higher risk if inflation pushes rates upward What’s the Best Move Right Now? ✔ Go Fixed if you want stability and protection from rising rates. ✔ Go Variable if you believe rates will drop and you can handle some risk. ✔ Consider a Hybrid Mortgage to get the best of both worlds. Stay Flexible & Informed Mortgage rates are unpredictable, and the best choice today may change in a few months. Working with a mortgage professional can help you navigate these shifts and secure the best deal for your financial future. Need expert guidance? Reach out today to discuss your options!

How to Ensure a Smooth Home Purchase

By Anita Groves • February 19, 2025

Chances are, buying a home is one of the most important financial decisions you’ll make in your life. And as mortgage financing can be somewhat confusing at the best of times, to alleviate some of the stress and to ensure your home purchase goes as smoothly as possible, here are six very high-level steps you should follow. While it might seem like the best place to start the home buying process is to browse MLS on your phone and then contact a Realtor to go out and look at properties, it’s not. First, you’re going to want to work with a licensed independent mortgage professional. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, instead of working with a single bank, you’ll be working with someone who has your best interest in mind and can present you with mortgage options from several financial institutions. The second step in the home buying process is to put together a mortgage plan. Unless you have enough money in the bank to buy a home with cash, you’re going to need a mortgage. And as mortgage financing can be challenging and not so straightforward, the best time to start planning for a mortgage is right now. Don’t make another move until you discuss your financial situation with an independent mortgage professional. It’s never too early to start planning. As part of your mortgage plan, you’ll want to figure out what you can afford on paper, assess your credit score, run some financial scenarios, calculate mortgage payments, and have a clear picture of exactly how much money is required for a downpayment and closing costs. You’ll also be able to discuss which mortgage product is best for you, considering different mortgage terms, types, amortizations, and features. Now, what you qualify to borrow on paper doesn’t necessarily mean you can actually afford the payments in real life. You need to consider your lifestyle and what you spend your money on. Understanding your cash flow is the key. Make a budget to verify you can actually afford your proposed mortgage payments and that you have enough funds to close on the mortgage. No one wants to be house-poor or left scrambling to come up with funds to close at the last minute. If everything looks good at this point, the next step will be to get a preapproval in place. Now, a pre-approval is more than just typing some numbers into a form or online calculator; you need to complete a mortgage application and submit all the documents requested by your mortgage professional. Only proceed with looking at properties when you’ve been given the green light from your mortgage professional. When you’ve found a property to purchase, you’ll work very closely with your mortgage professional to arrange mortgage financing in a short period of time. This is where being prepared pays off. As you’ve already collected and submitted many documents upfront during the preapproval process, you should be set up for success. However, remain flexible and provide any additional documentation required by the lender to secure mortgage financing. Once you have firm lender approval and you’ve removed conditions on the purchase agreement, don’t change anything about your financial situation until you have the keys. Don’t quit your job, don’t take out a new loan, or don’t make a large withdrawal from your bank account. Put your life into a holding pattern until you take possession of your new home. So there you have it, six steps to ensuring a smooth home purchase: Work with an independent mortgage professional. Put together a mortgage plan. Figure out what you can actually afford. Get a pre-approval. Provide the necessary documentation. Don’t change anything about your financial situation until you take possession. If you’d like to discuss your personal financial situation and find the best mortgage product for you, let’s work together. We can figure out a plan to buy a home as stress-free as possible. Please connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you.